Thursday, May 11, 2017

Poll Dancing

I like independent surveys of regular "Joe" and "Jane" citizens with regard to the current political climate.  If FaceBook is merely an echo-chamber of one's personal and political beliefs, then it's fair to say that, if you look hard enough, you can find a poll to suit your personal life view.  Therefore, it's imperative that we try to use non-partisan surveys to gauge political sentiment: our Nation's view of acts and actions.

This week we were privy to the President's Apprentice-style execution of (now) former FBI Director, James Comey.  Trump's historic opinion of the director could only be described as "up and down" as praises of Comey's decisions in the Fall of 2016 have now been cited as the former-director's downfall.  "But, the e-mails..." you might say.  Yes, even during recent testimony last week, Comey admitted that he was sickened by his perceived need to go down that rabbit hole, thereby (somewhat) influencing our electoral process.  He's paid the price now for lack of discretion then...but, due to his involvement in an ongoing investigation into election meddling and potential collusion between this President and the Russian State, Comey's shame is Donald Trump's cross to bear.

Let's get it straight: the President has the right to fire the director of the FBI for no reason.  However, the appearance of skullduggery in Trump's decision has lead to a not-so-kind review of the Cheeto-In-Chief, which brings me back to polls.

First, some qualifications which are undeniable: the Asbury Park Press is an esteemed daily which runs in NJ along the shore, is an award winning publication well respected nationally for its investigative reporting.  Say what you want about accuracy of Wikipedia, their list of awards for the APP is current and defensible.  


To quote the Quinnipiac Poll's own web page, "Frequently cited by journalists, public officials and researchers, the independent Quinnipiac University Poll regularly surveys residents in Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and nationwide about political races, state and national elections, and issues of public concern, such as schools, taxes, transportation, municipal services and the environment."

The Asbury Park Press wrote, "The Quinnipiac University Poll is considered the gold standard in the business, frequently lauded by USA Today and other national media organizations for its information and accuracy."  (Say what you want about the APP, they're legit and Say what you want about accuracy of the APP, but Wikipedia's list of their awards is current and defensible.)

So, we've established that both the APP and Quinnipiac are respected institutions.  Well, take a look at this.  Trump's approval rating has taken a Christie-like nose-dive.  Just take a look, 1/3 of the way down the page at the words most associated with Trump; top three: idiot, incompetent, and liar.  In fact, of the 527 responses where more than 5 people said the same thing, 63% of them had negative connotations.  This isn't surprising.  According to the poll, only 36% approved of his time in office while 58% disapproved of the job he's doing.  The poll also captures some demographic information about the shifting opinions, and it seems that, the longer he stays in office, his popularity is declining "...among white voters with no college degree, white men and independent voters [i.e. members of his base]." 

Even 538.com, Nate Silver's (and now ESPN's) statistics based website offers a view of Trump's approval ratings, which is a weighted amalgam of other polls, has 52.8% of Americans disapprove and only 41.3% approve of Agent Orange.  Not a historic low, but maybe more accurate?

I think the takeaway from all of this is that we need to keep pushing for the truth.  We need to prop up our investigative journalists so they can reveal dark hidden secrets that government doesn't want us to know.  Also, it's important to not just repost jargon...but to read the bills that our Congress is trying to pass off as good legislation...you know, stuff the House of Representatives can't be bothered with. Then, we need to call our Bible-Belt relatives, or our Bubbys in Florida, or our mid-western friends, and urge them to review the facts that aren't reported on Fox News (the same Fox News who initially reported that Comey resigned).  


Ultimately, we need to further the efforts of Mulder and Scully, because the truth IS out there.  

(P.S. Yes, I do understand that polls also, incorrectly, predicted a HRC win.  I don't need the trolling, please. Pobody's nerfect.)




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